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Thursday
11Mar2010

Ending Earmarks: Symbolism, not Solutions

If only lobbyists were so forthcomingThe House Democratic Leadership announced today that it would stop accepting earmarks for private companies.  While public agencies and non-profit companies will still be eligible for earmarked funds, the rules change by the Democratic leadership of the House Appropriations Committee will prevent corporations from lobbying Congressman for no-bid contracts and directed pork.  The change is so unequivocally positive that rather than spin the decision the Republicans attempted to one-up the Democrats by banning earmarks entirely in their caucus.  My support for such a change- and I agree with the Republicans that it should be a blanket ban- stems from my belief that the politics of financial quid pro quo have a deleterious effect on the quality of our Congressmen.  Anything that takes away the ability of Congressmen to graft under the the noise of Congressional business is a positive development.  My deep concern over the federal deficit, however, does not figure into my consideration of this change, because banning earmarks will do almost nothing to shrink the deficit.  According to the Appropriations Committee, if their proposal had been in effect in 2009 it would have saved the federal government $1.7 billion.  In other words, this proposal would have fixed .12% of the deficit ($1.412 trillion last year).  

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Wednesday
10Mar2010

Why Youth Leads the Recovery

source: Justice DepartmentThis week's Featured Find, an excellent Atlantic article by Dan Peck examining the long-run social costs of persistent unemployment, contains an embedded series of glourified vlogs blasting the youth of the nation for being "Followers, Not Leaders" and entitled basterds.  Au contraire, stuffy old people, WE, the youth, will lead the economic recovery, for several reasons:  

(1) Twentysomethings haven't taken on unnecessary debt - the root of the economic troubles - mostly because we haven't been able to.  Marriage and children being pushed off ten or fifteen years in favor of "funemployment" means that we young people won't be stuck paying off toxic mortgages (which we don't have) and credit card debt (which we have a lot less of) when the good times start rolling again, and instead can actually put our money to work for us like it's Babylon.  Capitalism in the past has been all about young people's ideas and old people's money, but since the Jedi Council spent all its money on snuggies and McMansions back in like the nineties, we sheepish youth will have to find angels or institutional investors among our own flock.

(2) Youth is beyond irrational debate. And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother's eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye?  A few years ago, I witnessed a C-SPAN Book TV interview with a characteristically highball-nursing, pretentious white suit-wearing Tom Wolfe about his book "I Am Charlotte Simmons."  Wolfe criticized Generation Y for being nihilistic, hedonistic, and ignorant of social problems.  I found this ever so slightly hypocritical coming from a member of a generation whose idea of engineering social change was taking drugs and going to concerts.   Accordingly, Generation Y was chided by A.H.L.D. for supporting "an idealist" like Obama over the practical experience of Hillary Clinton.  Obama was chosen by my generation precisely because he promised to transcend the partisan bickering of the Boomers; he was seen as a transformative pragmatist, who would employ whatever tools of problem solving proved necessary to move beyond the ridiculous culture war and solve problems like Sherlock.

(3) The youth are the most familiar with the tools of the new economy across the board.  The sectors that will lead the new economy are rapidly changing, and it pays to have recently finished one's education.  In healthcare, a rapidly expanding industry with a massive shortage of qualified workers, the younger the better.  Fifteen years ago, only a few hundred nucleotides of the human genome were known.  Now, all 3.2 billion have been sequenced and their applications are seemingly without end.  I was in school for that.  Whereas a Boomer might have learned that cancer was a virus in his biology 101 class, we learned about tyrosine kinase and risk factors.  Also, the new economy requires the ability to multitask.  Much has been made by iPad-wielding beats of the sheer amount of time the youth of America spend being bombarded by information as though this were a bad thing.  The constant demand for feedback that Ron Alsop attributes to an inability to lead and a reluctance to make decisions for ourselves is more likely a function of constant linkages to other people and accordingly higher standards for informed leadership; expecting "constant feedback" at work is a function of the constant communication and opportunities for fact-checking offered by information technologies, the anti-ignorance, with which we are remarkably proficient.

(4) If it doesn't kill us, it makes us stronger.  The recession will ultimately be good for my generation's character; we will learn the lessons of frugality and sacrifice now, when we can learn new tricks, rather than never, like the indebted, entitled, fat, lazy Boomers who literally got everything handed to them as children, still managed to screw it up, are still playing catch-up with science from 150 years ago and social movements from five decades ago, and expect to be supported by my generation throughout their vacated pension years.  This recession provides unemployed twentysomethings with an opportunity for the unstructured self-discovery which they were largely denied as children of the 1980s's materialism.  In the words of Mr. Peck:   

For the generation that grew up during the Depression and was inclined to pinch pennies, policies that encouraged freer spending were sensible enough—they allowed the economy to grow faster. But as younger generations, weaned on credit, followed, and credit availability increased, the system got out of hand. Housing, meanwhile, became an ever-more-central part of the American Dream: for many people, as the recent housing bubble grew, owning a home came to represent not just an end in itself, but a means to financial independence.

On one level, the crisis has demonstrated what everyone has known for a long time: Americans have been living beyond their means, using illusory housing wealth and huge slugs of foreign capital to consume far more than we’ve produced. The crash surely signals the end to that; the adjustment, while painful, is necessary.

Boomers, prepare to see your sons and daughters become the heroes and sheroes of the new age.

Tuesday
09Mar2010

Iraq Elections: A Small Step, Not a Giant Leap

After a year of worry, heightened by the drama of the de-Ba'athification candidate purge, the Iraqi elections went off without many hitches.  Which is to say that there were plenty of bombings, 38 people were killed, but turnout was high with two-thirds of the country voting including a majority of the Sunni population which boycotted the last election in 2005.  That's good news for the Iraqis and it's better news for us, because it means that we are on pace to leave on schedule by the end of 2011.  What the election does not do, however, is retroactively vindicate the decision to invade Iraq.  

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Saturday
06Mar2010

Political Ideology and Morality: Correlation Does Not Imply Causation

The first lesson one learns in Statistics 101 is that correlation does not imply causation; that is, if two events seem to follow each other, that doesn't mean they are directly related.  For example, for many years it was believed that children who slept with the light on were more likely to develop myopia later in life.  This correlation seemed to make sense logically, but many years of rigorous study confirmed that myopic children tended to have myopic parents who were more prone to use bright lights across the board.  In this case, bright lights did not cause myopia: it was the other way around.

New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof, fond himself of correlating opposing political ideologies with unpleasant psychological problems, recently wrote a column on research linking conservatism to vulnerability and low tolerance for disgust.  Liberals, on the other hand, are more likely to slap their own fathers.  Kristof references a new database for this sort of psychological research: www.yourmorals.org, which I went to and submitted to several psychological tests.

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Friday
05Mar2010

Crossing the Line

Repent Amarillo's Spirtual MapThe internet is abuzz with reports of an extreme Christian group in Amarillo, Texas that has used aggressive measures to punish sinful behavior to prevent their town from becoming a "demonic stronghold."  Repent Amarillo's views of what constitutes immorality are no different than many other Christians, but their methods are on the extreme fringe.  In an expose entitled "He Who Cast the First Stone" the Texas Observer recounts a year of intimidation against a private, middle class swingers club:

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Thursday
04Mar2010

Justified Homicide: Drone Warfare

Drone Attacks in PakistanThe Telegraph published results from a study by the New America Foundation that estimates that 32% of deaths caused by drones attacks in Pakistan since 2004 were civilians.

Their report, The Year of the Drone, studied 114 drone raids in which more than 1200 people were killed. Of those, between 549 and 849 were reliably reported to be militant fighters, while the rest were civilians.

"The true civilian fatality rate since 2004 according to our analysis is approximately 32 per cent," the foundation reported.

The actual study demonstrates how difficult it is to reliably ascertain who was killed by the attacks, as the confirmed number killed varies from 834 to 1,216.  If just the total casualty count varies by that much it's hard to imagine that knowing who exactly is included in the deaths is all that precise.  Nevertheless, the ratio of combatants to fatalities in either the low (34%) or the high (30%) estimate are close enough that their figure passes the smell test.

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Sunday
28Feb2010

Good Time Charlie: Dreaming of Crist

When the rumors that Charlie Crist may opt to run as an independent for the open Florida Senate seat, following the "Joe Lieberman Primary sore-loser" model, the reaction from political watchers was rapturous.  Nate Silver summed it up best: "If Crist were to win as an indie, he'd instantly become one of the most important politicians in America. But not an easy path."  I agree on both points, having a true independent from the center-right would be a refreshing change of pace in Congress, but it will be tough to pull off.  Crist is currently bleeding support against both Marco Rubio, his staunchly conservative Republican Primary opponent, and Kendrick Meeks, the likely Democratic candidate.  The man who was once the most popular governor in the country has lose his luster thanks to a concerted effort on the part of conservatives to punish him for his moderate policies and support for Obama's stimulus plan.  However, if Crist were to leave the Republican party by highlighting how his sensible progressivism was heir to the Teddy Roosevelt Republican tradition he could be a formidable foe in the general election; once a clear winner develops from either party, and in all likelihood Mr. Rubio looks like the heavy favorite, voters from the other side might flock to Crist as the lesser of two evils.  Given the state's history with disputed elections, I imagine Florida voters will be sensitive to the notion of "throwing their vote away."

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Friday
26Feb2010

Our Obese Economy

Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works. - John Stuart Mill

David Leonhardt recently wrote a column for the New York Times in overwhelming praise of the stimulus.  Leonhardt goes to great lengths to castigate opponents as political opportunists, visceral reactionaries, or ideologues, but Leonhardt, and many other proponents of economic stimulus - including Paul Krugman - fundamentally misunderstands the nature behind the opposition; it's not about doubting the math or denying that government programs designed to create jobs create jobs.  Reasoned opposition relies on the idea of malinvestments contaminating the economy and the creation of moral hazard inevitably postponing a bigger collapse.

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Thursday
25Feb2010

Terrorism isn't a Team, it's a Noun

Joe Stack's decision to crash a plane into an IRS building in Austin, Texas can not be divorced from the symbolic weight of that form of violence in this country.  Pretending that he was not aware or did not intentionally intend to parallel 9/11 is willfully naive.  Obviously the scale of the attack was much smaller, and in his suicide note/anti-IRS screed Stack seemed to hint that he only intended to kill himself.  Then again, one quote either hopes for copycat suicides or mass-murder: "I can only hope that the numbers [of people dying for freedom] quickly get too big to be white washed and ignored that the American zombies wake up and revolt; it will take nothing less." Whether or not he intended to kill many people, or only himself, his actions speak for themselves: this was terrorism.  He flew a plane filled with gasoline into a building and murdered someone to make a political point.  

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Tuesday
23Feb2010

Flawless Victory: Airstrikes and COIN

Yesterday, in a television address that was aired nationally in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChystal apologized for the NATO airstrike on Sunday that mistook a civilian bus convoy for insurgent reenforcement to the battle in Marja and resulted in as many as 27 deaths including four women and a child.  Apart from wondering about efficacy of television addresses as strategic communication in a country where in 2005 only 19% of households owned a TV, NATO's newfound sensitivity to civilian collateral damage underscores the difficulty of counter-insurgency warfare.  Can the U.S. win wars fought with its principal advantages used sparingly, a tactical necessity to avoid any mistakes to adhere to larger strategic goals and sharp political reprisals from allied leaders should any errors occur?  Moreover, will we have the patience and will to even try?

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Friday
19Feb2010

Our Spendthrift Uncle, Sam

We have focused on debt and deficits quite a lot around here lately, and it's not hard to see why: the U.S. deficit is at a record level even as Europe struggles with the consequences of excess deficits in the Greek debt crisis.  Deficits are not intrisinctly bad, pretty clearly some situations demand deficit spending: the choice between running a deficit and say, being conquered by Nazis and Imperial Japan, or a decade long economic collapse accompanied by death from famine and deprivation, isn't difficult to make.  However, the existence of persistent deficits, through good times and bad, indicates a political failure in this country.  To illustrate the problem, let's consider a thought experiment: imagine the U.S. government as a person- someone you know, your wacky, rich Uncle Sam.

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Thursday
18Feb2010

China Diplomacy: Dalai Lama, Google, Taiwan, Trade

Everywhere you turn, the media is pouncing on the President's apparent rough start with China Diplomacy.  Having today met with the Dalai Lama fresh on the heels of a widely publicized Taiwan weapons deal, a feud over Google censorship, and an escalating trade war, President Obama has done nothing radical or out of the ordinary as far as U.S.-China diplomacy goes.  Rather, the current political and economic climates are stacked against the administration, and much of the rhetoric amounts to nothing more than muscle-flexing.  The Administration's dealings with China have been rooted in measured, compromised positions

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Wednesday
17Feb2010

Greek Tragedy of the Commons

The Eurozone faces its first big test this month as revelations of a Greek debt crisis have raised the possibility of an insolvent country within the Euro 16.  So far the rest of the E.U. has insisted that Greece take measures to immediately reduce its deficit to the mandated maximum allowable 3% of GDP by 2012, after it was revealed to have run deficits four times that large in 2009.  The richest countries in Europe, most of whom have passed debt financed economic stimulus plans themselves, forcing new taxes, entitlement cuts and payroll freezes on one of the relatively poorer countries is tough medicine to stomach; however, given that other Mediterrian countries, notably Spain and Italy, face their own debt problems, setting a tough precident is not just justified, but essential.

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Tuesday
16Feb2010

One Way to Help Haiti

What is the role of microfinance in the aftermath of a natural disaster?   The short answer is that, under the circumstances, microfinance is ineffective.  A prerequisite for microcredit is a functioning economy.  Goods and services need to be worth money for capital infusions to make a difference.  For example, NWTF lends money to a woman for the purpose of opening a general store.  The woman uses the loan to buy soap from one retailer and soft drinks from another.  She hires a local contractor to build the addition on her home, or at least purchases the materials.  The money flows around community, and everyone becomes wealthier.  But in the after a natural disaster, the communities served by microfinance are so devastated that money is worth less.  There is no electricity, no fuel, no food, no water, and no shelter.  Homes have been destroyed and people are starving.  A sack of rice becomes invaluable – to a starving person, no amount of money would lead them to part with food.    So it becomes a barter economy, if there is anything to barter at all.  As with everything, these points are best illuminated by example.  The most obvious is the recent earthquake in Haiti.  In reality, Haiti needs aid money, and it needs aid workers to deliver services.  Microfinance – microcredit, in particular – cannot immediately help during the relief period because there is no economy to stimulate.

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Saturday
13Feb2010

The Catholic Church: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back

I'm proud to be a Catholic.  While Protestants were busy reading the Bible, addressing each other as "Goody", building barns, and milking cows, my religious ancestors were hunting down witches and heretics and setting them on fire, writing books about damning people to Hell and following through by actually damning them to hell, devising complex codes and secret societies to keep losers at bay, invading an entire region of the globe in search for a magic cup, building labyrinths, burning surviving classical texts, improving torture techniques, trying to keep a dead language alive, and otherwise founding Western civilization.  But to really appreciate how cool Catholicism is when compared to Protestantism, one need only compare Gregorian Chant to Creed.

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Friday
12Feb2010

The Silent Good Times Roll

If you listen to the mood of cultural zeitgeist right now, you'd think the world was slipping inevitably towards calamitous anarchy.  The economy is in decline, our cultural values are eroding and America's place in the world is in doubt even as we are confronted with a multitude of problems: two wars, climate change, pandemic disease, Islamic terrorism, the rise of China and a looming deficit, debt and entitlement problem.  While this analysis contains some of substance, this granular reality obscures a larger truth: things in the world and in America are better than at any time in history, perhaps excepting five years ago when we had all of this plus a housing bubble.  This relatively brief moment of crisis has not weakened the core strength of American society, culture and economy and the arc of history continues to bend towards increasing societal welfare.

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Tuesday
09Feb2010

Hot Luntz

Political Consultant Frank Luntz is arguably the most influential man in the world.  His distinguished career as a director of focus groups for the Republican Party, frequent commentator on Fox News, consultant for conservative political parties in Australia and the United Kingdom, and author is tempered with the unapologetic dishonesty of his mission and that of his company, the Word Doctors.  The Word Doctors's work is, as Luntz himself describes it, "testing language and finding words that will help (our) clients sell their product or turn public opinion on an issue or a candidate."  In other words, Luntz is an unabashed propagandist in the grand tradition of Big Brother and Napoleon the Pig.

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Friday
05Feb2010

Closing Pandora's Box: Music After Napster

A debate has brewed on the internet this week about intellectual property law, starting with Matt Yglesias's post about declining music revenues.

It is, of course, possible that at some point the digital music situation will start imperiling the ability of consumers to enjoy music. The purpose of intellectual property law is to prevent that from happening... But I don’t know anyone who would seriously argue that a music fan in 2010 is in worse shape than a music fan in 1990 was. It’s much, much, much easier to find and listen to a wide variety of songs from all over the world.

I agree whole heartedly, the convenience of digital music stimulates the demand side, in consumption if not in price, even as the cost of producing music has plummeted with digital recording techniques leading to a huge increase in the availability and variety of music.

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Thursday
04Feb2010

The Evolution of Attitudes about Gay Rights.

No More Dan Choi'sAfter a first year of mostly punting gay rights down the road, President Obama's promise to end Don't Ask, Don't Tell at the State of Union felt reassuring, if long overdue.  Still, supporters of expanded gay rights probably weren't holding their breaths after nearly two decades of riding in the back of the bus of Democratic Party priorities.  Yet, within the week, Bob Gates and Mike Mullen affirmed their support for the Presidents decision before Congress.  They are temperamentally conservatively men so there was no grand speeches on equality, just support for a commission to explore changing the policy accompanied by an immediate change in enforcement, so that others could not "out" a gay member of the military.  So we will have to wait for a change that practically every subgroup in the country supports.  It was great comfort to hear Mike Mullen's statement of support on the subject: “No matter how I look at the issue, I cannot escape being troubled by the fact that we have in place a policy which forces young men and women to lie about who they are in order to defend their fellow citizens.”

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Sunday
31Jan2010

Book Review: Bruce Bartlett - The New American Economy

Bruce Bartlett's conservative economic bona fides are apparent in his resume: he started as a member of Ron Paul and Jack Kemp's Congressional staff, then became Executive Director of the Joint Economic Committee during the Reagan administration and later served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Economic Policy at the Treasury Department under H. W. Bush.  He literally wrote the book on supply-side economics, with Reaganomics: Supply-Side Economics in Action in 1981.  With such unimpeachable conservative economic credentials, Bartlett feels free to slaughter some of the right's sacred cows in his recent book, The New American Economy: The Failure of Reaganomics and the New Way Forward.  He rehabilitates John Maynard Keynes as a misunderstood conservative, calls for the victory celebration and subsequent retirement of supply-side economics and defends President Obama's stimulus plan as the only thing to do.

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