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Wednesday
Jan202010

Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

Our next President?Scott Brown's victory in the Massachusetts special election is such a colossal upset that it will necessarily become a symbol for Republicans to rally around.  However, the fact that his election may likely derail health care reform does not mean that it was anything like a national referendum on that process.  While Democrats will no doubt be even more timid about passing health care reform, they should be more determined than ever to do it anyway.  

Both parties have internalized the lessons of 1994, but only the Republicans have crafted anything coherent from it.  Democrats running away from health care reform should remember that it didn't save the party in 1994 and it will surely doom them now.  The problem with health care reform isn't the bill, it's the process.  End the process, move on and focus on things Americans will like or fail at the process and own it forever.  The Republican refusal to engage in any way with health care reform, combined with the huge Democratic majorities that made Republicans superfluous anyway, meant that for about as long as anyone can remember every Congressional story was about Democrats fighting with each other over health care.  Ted Bacchus, Blanche Lincoln, Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu and Joe Lieberman all had to be bribed and cajoled into the tent, making every aspect of the plan controversial without Republicans just chanting "socialism" even as the bill moved steadily to the right.  This process has sapped all of the political benefit out of health care reform, since every fresh detail alienated more Democrats while Republicans remained obstinately, but solidly away from the debate.

Voters have bought the messaging that the Democrats aren't doing enough to fix the economy because all the things they have done, have faded as health care reform drags on and all of the counter-recessionary policy recedes into the distant past.  Political popularity during a serious recession is hard to do and selling the recession as "less bad than it would have been" isn't quite as catchy as "change you can believe in."  Finishing health care reform will allow voters to move on, and the parts of the bill that might be less popular - individual mandates for example- won't be in effect by the midterms.  But a new package of financial reforms and the second year of stimulus will. 

The election of Scott Brown from the bastion on of liberalism should wake Democrats up, but not to the unpopularity of health care.  Voters do not care about Democratic chances in 2010, they can about their own lives and the future of the country.  There are no where near enough loyal Democrats to make up for the apparent incompetence of the Democratic Congress.  The Democrats can not expect voters to be sympathetic to complaining that 59 votes in the Senate just aren't enough to enact any legislation, especially legislation this close to approval.  Force the Republicans to actually filibuster health care reform, then they'll have to put skin in the game and the inanity of their opposition as though the bill is "socialist" will be exposed.  The House could also take it upon itself to pass the Senate bill, not exactly leadership from adversity but at least it would be over.  Most of all, President Obama needs to take the reigns and lay out in simple terms everything that has happened so far and paint a picture of what comes next.  The State of the Union is only a week away, it should say on no uncertain terms everything that has been done and point out what has come out of the health care reform process: a bill without any public option, that shrinks the deficit and insures 30 million new Americans.  

Scott Brown is going to be a hotshot no matter what, but its up to Democrats whether or not he is going to be the Republican who single handedly kill health care reform, AKA our next President, or just a two year Senator before a real Democratic candidate takes the seat back.  Pass and pivot, Democrats, don't retreat!

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