Brookings: How We're Doing in the World

Brookings recently released its annual survey of how the U.S. is doing in the world, a series of indices for the last four years concerning foreign policy and diplomacy as well as global economics and development.  According to the survey, the United States has made considerable diplomatic progress under the Obama Administration in nearly all spheres, while global economic indicators have gotten decidedly worse across the board.  And while this shouldn't surprise anyone, the progress made over the last two years goes to show the enduring power of a cooperative and cordial international stance and good PR, and the statistics highlight several neglected issues.      

As for the common defense, global fatalities from terrorism in 2009 (statistics only through September) are listed at 1,300 per month - down considerably from 1,900 per month in 2007, the year of raids on Xinjiang, the Qahtaniya suicide bombings, escalating violence in Afghanistan and the Philippines, the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, election riots in Kenya, and the Iraq surge.  

In 2009, the number of U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, at 178,000, was down slightly from the 2007 peak of 185,000; however combat fatalities were nearly cut in half over the same period, from 990 in 2007 to 449 in 2009, due to the dramatic improvement of the situation in Iraq .  From 2006 to 2009, U.S. popularity climbed steadily throughout Asia (52 to 61) and the Middle East (23 to 31), while undergoing an about-face of astronomical proportions in fair-weather Europe (39 to 67).

Economic indicators are not so good: U.S. GDP shrank 2.4% in 2009, essentially undoing the previous two years of growth; global GDP shrank 2.1%, down 6% from peak growth of 3.9% in 2006.  BRIC-plus was hit hard by the financial crisis, but in nations with developing domestic economies and solid fundamentals, such as China and India, growth continued at robust rates throughout 2009.  

One of the more shocking statistics in the report is that world trade growth was at negative 12.3% in 2009 from its 9.1% 2006 level - a difference of more than twenty percentage points.  Worker's remittances experienced a similar shift throughout the same period.  Federal debt as a percentage of GDP went up to 53% in 2009 from 2006 levels of 36.5%.  The unemployment rate doubled, from 4.6% to 9.3%, while inflation generally stayed in the low, single digits throughout the period.

A statistic of particular note is the degree to which various U.S. cities experienced the recession in the form of change in payroll employment.  Washington D.C. payroll employment change in 2006 was 1.3%; this dropped to -0.5% in 2009.  Cleveland went from -0.4% to -4.1% in this same period, and Las Vegas went from 2.7% to -7.4%.  That means a percent change of -1.8 for Washington, -3.7 for Cleveland, and -10.1% for Las Vegas.  Indeed the recession has had completely different effects on different cities nationwide: Washington's economy was doubtlessly spared because of its high dependence on government jobs, while Las Vegas's construction and tourism-based economy was hit hard by mortgage, construction, wage, and liquidity problems.  This pattern holds for cities like Oklahoma City and Miami as well.  

Otherwise, the Dow gained almost 2000 points in 2009, mortgage rates dropped steadily throughout the period, and the personal savings rate has more than doubled from 2007 levels, laying a solid foundation for recovery.  

The Brookings report has an interesting third section called "Blessings of Liberty," which measures key miscellaneous statistics.  The global happiness index experienced little change over the last four years.  It started at 5.41 in 2006, went up to 5.51 in 2007 (probably a function of the Transformers movie), dropped back to 5.41 in 2008, and rose back up ever so slightly to 5.45 in 2009.  The Presidential approval rate nearly doubled from 2008 to 2009; from Bush's last year's abysmal 30% to Obama's initial 60% approval rating.  Approval of Congress hovered around 30% for the most part, briefly dropping to 19% in 2008.  This pessimism was generally mirrored in the average satisfied rating of Americans.  The gap between Republican and Democratic Presidential approval ratings dropped slightly from 71% in 2007 to 65% in 2009.   

Brookings's survey is interesting for several reasons: while it generally confirms experience, it highlights some under-appreciated or neglected issues, such as - considering how little has tangibly changed over the last four years - the importance of humility, cooperation, and pragmatism in international relations, how small a role terrorism actually plays in anyone's life despite how large a role airport security plays, the truly whopping degree of decline in world trade, the unjustified sudden hoopla over Federal Deficit now that a Democratic President is in charge, the disproportionate effects of the recession on some U.S. cities over others, a general disaffection with government, and an absurdly pronounced partisan gap.