China Diplomacy: Dalai Lama, Google, Taiwan, Trade

The media has increasingly expanded on the President's apparent rough start with China diplomatically.  Obama's meeting today with the Dalai Lama came fresh on the heels of a widely publicized Taiwan weapons deal, a feud over Google censorship, and an escalating trade war, yet all of this smoke obscures that President Obama has done nothing radical or out of the ordinary in U.S.-China relations.  Rather, the current political and economic climates are stacked against the administration, and much of the rhetoric amounts to nothing more than muscle-flexing.  The Administration's dealings with China have been rooted in measured, compromised positions. 

President Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama was carefully arranged, and it was a considerable step back from the warmth shown to the exiled political leader by the Bush Administration.  George H.W. Bush was the first U.S. President to meet with the Dalai Lama, in 1991, while Tiananmen Square was still very much an embarrassment for Chinese leadership.  The meeting was in private, and photographers were not allowed.  President Clinton avoided Chinese anger by occasionally attending the Dalai Lama's meetings with other officials, but never meeting with him privately; when the Dalai Lama visited the White House, he was granted an audience with First Lady Hillary Clinton.  George W. Bush has been the most receptive President so far: meeting several times in private with the exiled religious leader, giving him the Congressional Gold Medal in an elaborate public ceremony, and urging Chinese leaders to meet with the Dalai Lama for talks.  

The approach of the Obama Administration represents a compromise between those of the Clinton and Bush Administrations.  By meeting with the Dalai Lama in the Map Room, instead of the Oval Office, of the White House, and scheduling no joint press conference, the Administration sends a strong, yet unoffensive signal to Chinese leadership.  This strategy avoids both the equivocation of the Clinton approach and the brashness of the Bush approach.

Recently, Google waged censorship battle with the Chinese government, which accused the company of supplying vulgar content to internet users and may have been involved with a highly organized cyber attack on the company's network aimed at gathering intelligence on human rights groups.  Google has cited the safety of its network in public considerations of ending its operating in China.  The U.S. State Department has weighed in on the issue.  According to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton:

We have been briefed by Google on these allegations, which raise very serious concerns and questions. We look to the Chinese government for an explanation.     

Conflating the financial interests of a private company with larger national interests are imprudent; Secretary of State Clinton's comments are vague enough to avoid such a confusion, but tempting enough to invite media speculation and instigation.  Especially with China, it is important for the U.S. to emphasize the considerable latitude and freedoms our corporations enjoy.  Likewise, it is important to emphasize that this particular disagreement is not between the United States and China, but between China and Google.  Going forward, the Obama Administration should be more careful to stay uninvolved.    

The common assumption that U.S. weapons deals with Taiwan are designed to create antagonism between the rival governments, keep the PRC military occupied by proxy, contain China's development, or enhance U.S. geostrategic influence in the region is flawed.  On the contrary, Taiwan arms deals began in 1979 as part of the normalization of relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China.  The U.S. supports a good, balanced relationship between the two powers, and weapons sales to Taiwan usually correspond to PRC arms buildup across the Taiwan Strait and are designed to prevent the military balance from tilting excessively in China's favor.  Furthermore, the United States is bound by law in the form of the Taiwan Relations Act to provide for the defensive capabilities of Taiwan.  The current weapons deal was based on equipment largely approved by the Bush Administration starting in 2001 and represents only a fraction of what was requested by Taiwan.  The most important reason for the arms deal is to reassure Taiwan and other long-time Asian allies Japan and South Korea that the U.S. seeks a balance of military power in the region and economic integration to mitigate potential hostilities.  This is an issue that the U.S. and China fundamentally disagree on but poses no immediate threat, and it may go away by itself if relations between the two Chinas continue to warm.   

This timeline by NPR shows the history of economic relations between the U.S. and the People's Republic of China.  Over the last fifteen years or so, Chinese factories began gradually producing more and more goods for American consumers.  During the recession, aggregate demand in the U.S. has dropped and so have Chinese exports.  The Obama Administration seeks a more balanced economic relationship between the two countries, with China floating the RMB and creating a climate more friendly to U.S. exports.  Americans depend on Chinese manufacturers for cheap goods and Chinese manufacturers depend on American consumers.  Recently, both sides have exchanged rhetoric and tariffs as economic relations continue to sour.  

Unfortunately, a tougher stance towards Chinese trade policies should have been taken by the Bush Administration.  After eight years of exceptional growth, the booming Chinese domestic economy and the U.S. trade deficit gives the Chinese government more bargaining strength.  It will nevertheless be necessary for the Obama Administration to insist that China make concessions in exchange for an open American market.  While free trade benefits everybody, China has engaged in unfair protectionism while acquiring many concessions from the U.S., including being granted most-favored nation status and WTO membership.  By showing a clear tit-for-tat strategic face to Chinese leadership, the Obama Administration might succeed in rebalancing the economic relationship between the two countries.

The Administration has taken a tough, but fair and necessary approach towards China.  Much of the bad publicity is the effect of trying to correct the mistakes of the previous administration.  Ultimately the most important element of the U.S. China relationship is that economic interdependence hedges against military antagonism.  It will continue to be important for the two countries to work together in an assertive, yet non-threatening manner.  The Obama Administration's diplomacy thus far seems to focus more on a long-term, honest partnership between the two nations, and less on quick fixes, appeasement, and politicking.