Too Simple

Is it crying or bleeding? by HamoidWhen I consider an issue, I like to remind myself that everything is complicated, so if it seems simple that means I don't understand it.  When I hear a partisan describe something as if it were simple, I smell propaganda, not confusion.  The Israeli raid on a Gaza borne ship that left nine activists dead is the case in point.  There are so many moving pieces that any analysis will be incomplete, but the best feature insightful details not black and white moralism.

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The Gift that Never Gives

Jeffery Goldberg doesn't like the trend he sees in Israel's foreign policy:

A pattern has emerged in recent weeks of an Israeli government that seems to go far out of its way to alienate countries it has no business alienating. First, there was the gross insult directed at the Turkish ambassador to Israel by the deputy foreign minister, Danny Ayalon. [...]

Then came the assassination of a Hamas official in Dubai. Israel hasn't claimed responsibility for the assassination, but evidence points to the Mossad. It is one thing to kill Hamas officials -- Hamas, after all, has declared a war of destruction on Israel -- but it is another to do so in the United Arab Emirates, the most open-minded country in the Gulf, especially on matters related to Israel, and a country that is obviously important to the formation of a broad, anti-Iran coalition. 

Then, of course, came the humiliation dealt to Vice President Biden on his visit to Israel, about which enough ink has been spilled. [...]

Then this week came a snub by Danny Ayalon's boss, Avigdor Lieberman, the foreign minister, who boycotted a speech to the Knesset by the president of Brazil because Lula apparently wouldn't pay a visit to the grave of Theodore Herzl, who is now spinning in said grave, because he was a pragmatist as well as a dreamer and he knew that the Jews, a small, embattled people, need friends to survive. [...]

Bibi Netanyahu is not in control of his government. He has brought into his coalition parties -- Lieberman's party, the Shas Party -- that are narrow-focused, excessively-rightist, stubborn and prideful, and now he's paying the price. The problem is that Israel is paying the price as well. America can afford stupid politicians. Israel can't.  

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How to Lose an Arm's Race in One Year

Herbert Block's "Speak Loudly and Poke them with a Big Stick"A recent Harvard simulation of the next year of geo-political wrangling over the Iranian nuclear program concluded with a startling result: Iran succeeded and in the process strained U.S. diplomatic relations with Europe, Russia, China and especially Israel.  In the scenario, which featured senior diplomats and academics role-played as various heads of state, the U.S. initially focused exclusively on implementing broad sanctions.  Iran ignored the sanctions entirely and continued its program apace.  Eventually, China and Russia balked at the sanctions and secretly offered to help Iran.  The U.S., realizing that it was incapable of stopping Iran diplomatically and unwilling to intervene militarily, decides to adopt a policy of containment based on its earlier experience in the Cold War.  Israel, however, refuses to accept a nuclear Iran and the U.S. threatens to publicly condemn an attack on Iran by Israel.  The game ends with Iran gaining strengthened ties to Russia and China, and hard break between Israel and Washington.

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The Neverending Compromise: Israeli Settlements

One glaring failure in President Obama's first year is his attempt at a new peace process in Israel.  In fact, he failed several levels before that lofty goal when Likud Prime Mininster Benjamin Netanyahu resisted a settlement freeze that was just the opening bid for credibility.  After stonewalling for months while the Obama administration attempted to pressure him into a settlement freeze, Netanyahu then used the months of pressure as proof that Obama was only being tough on Israel and not on Palestine.  Finally, a one year moratorium on new construction "excluding projects in East Jerusalem, public buildings, and housing already under construction" was announced.  The Obama administration seemed content to move the scrutiny away from that situation, but once Hillary Clinton proclaimed the flimsy concessions as "unprecedented" the debate began anew.  That prompted Palestinian President Mahmoud Abba to announce his retirement.

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Rejoinders to "Conservatism's Moment"

The Empire of Japan: protecting Asia from ImperialismThere have been several suggestions for changing the contents of my article, "Conservatism's Moment", posted Monday morning.  The best of these are that (1) social conservatives feel the Republican Party has failed to effectively represent them and are primed to leave; (2) it would be better for American politics and make more sense for libertarian conservatives to form a third party; (3) social conservatives and neoconservatives also share a strong commitment to Israel; and (4) the neoconservative international agenda greatly resembles the "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere".  I will address these concerns briefly here. 

The first point, that social conservatives are loyal to the Republican Party only because the Democrats suddenly didn't represent them is true at a national level, however, I think the problem of potential social conservative disaffection could be solved with more federalism.  Were the Republicans to make that a core element of their party platform going forward, I think it would please socially conservative leadership.  Federalism is a fundamental tenet of libertarian conservatives.  So, an alliance with libertarians would give social conservatives the power to actualize their platforms at the state level.   

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Jordanian Majesty's Opinion on Middle East Peace

One of the biggest problems in the Middle-East peace process is the lack of reasonable leadership on either side.  Netanyahu is an unwilling participant in the two state solution and has to be strong armed into everything, Abbas is unable to speak for all of Palestine and Hamas needs an agreement with Fatah to even participate in negotiations.  That is why it is so encouraging to read interviews like this one with Jordanian King Abdullah.  A moderate in a region full of ideologues, Abdullah's opinions are all well thought out and illuminating, here are a few that jumped out to me:

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Not even Nobel Bats 1.000

After Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize, the natural reaction was to compare him to MLK Jr., Nelson Mandela or Mother Theresa, a comparison that makes his win hard to defend.  Yet, the Nobel Prize is no stranger to controversy, even among seemingly uncontroversial choices.  Here are a few of the less deserving Peace prize winners.

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Why they call him Attackerman

In shades of the derisive "Juice-Box Mafia" tag slapped on Jewish writers critical of Israel in the wake of the invasion of Gaza, Michael Gerson criticizes Ezra Klein for taking the dangers of antisemitism lightly:

One part of Klein’s post is particularly illuminating. He finds it amusing to belittle the threat of a hypothetical someone he calls “jewhater429, the 97th entrant in a comment thread” -- just a few months after an Internet-based Jew hater entered the Holocaust Museum with a gun and killed an African-American guard. Some people have the oddest sense of humor.

Spencer Ackerman then rips into Gerson for having the temerity to accuse a Jewish writer of being insufficiently concerned with antisemitism:

I don't know what lack of self-awareness convinces right-wing evangelicals that they're the true guardians of the Jews, but that condescending and parochial nonsense is its own form of antisemitism. We Tribesmen do not need some wire-rimmed enabler of one of the most destructive and inept presidents in American history to protect us from the perfidies of the world. It's us and not him who will pay the price for antisemitism, so if Gerson wants to actually act like a righteous gentile, he can start by not accusing Jews of apathy to their own people's wellbeing for the sin of not sharing his politics.

Um burn.  I agree with Ackerman and Klein in this issue specifically, and more generally I just wish that those bigotry trump cards were played more carefully.  I get that antisemitism and racism are intolerable, but when the left finds hidden racism behind every idiotic Obama criticism or when the right construes any criticism of Israel as antisemitism then the real specter of bigotry is weakened.  Limbaugh and Drudge engaged in real, ugly race baiting, but because of Jimmy Carter, when that legitimate example of racism is pointed out, it just seems like the left is "playing the race card" again.

Palestine, A Penny Saved...

I realized that I was a little light on actual policy suggestions in my post yesterday (What! you didn’t create peace in the Middle East in 500 words?), so I thought I would follow up today with some constructive criticisms.

First, Obama needs to do a better job of selling his plan to Israelis and Arabs, because so far he has failed miserably at convincing anyone that progress is occurring.  Fortunately, it looks like Obama has taken this to heart and is going to launch a PR campaign with Israeli and Arab media to drum up support for his vision for peace.

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Pennywise Israel

Israel and Obama have had a troubled relationship since before he even took office, as Israel invaded Gaza two and half weeks before his inauguration and then withdrew all troops out just before he became President. It was a clear attempt to get in the last punch before the rules changed, though it failed to save center-left Kadima from losing to center-right Likud in elections held three weeks later.

Meanwhile, as Obama worked hard to improve U.S. relations with the Muslim world through a speech in Cairo, he also took a tough line with new Israeli Prime Minister “Bibi” Netanyahu on settlements.  Perhaps with a Jewish Chief of Staff and, bona fide friend of Israel, Hillary Clinton as his Secretary of State Obama thought he would have enough wiggle room to reposition the U.S. as a fair actor in the region.  However, from Netanyahu supposedly calling David Alexrod and Emanuel “self-hating Jews” to the vitrol and paranoia in the streets Jersulem to a poll in June where just 6% of Israeli’s said that Obama was pro-Israel it seems he misjudged the mood of the country.

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Iran's Party Crashers

After yesterday’s unrest in Iran it is clear that the revolution is hot again, after conveniently taking a week off so the Western media could breathlessly cover the whereabouts of Michael Jackson’s body.  The green revolution is less convenient from the point of view of nearly everyone attempting to prevent Iran’s nuclear program.

After Obama took office his strategy on Iran seemed clear: by taking a hard line with Israel and reaching out to the Muslim World in Cairo he was attempting to reestablish the U.S. as an impartial actor in the region, even as he solidified support from Russia and China to present a unified international front.  Israel was crucial to this plan, both because progress on a Palestinian final status agreement would weaken Iran’s position in the Muslim world and because Israel’s bluster was the bad cop to Obama’s good cop.  The leadership in the Arab world is certainly receptive to Obama, though whether or not China and Russia would agree to tougher sanctions remains unclear.  However, this measured plan has been upset by the events in Tehran.

The brutal crackdown against the protesters demonstrates that the regime is, and probably always has been, illegitimate and brutally repressive.  Iran’s credibility on the Muslim streets as the antidote to American imperialism is damaged, making it unaccountable to foreign public opinion as it suppresses domestic unrest.  Thus, Iran’s current leadership has “gone rogue” (I can’t remember if that is a Palinism or a description of Palin), and it must be prevented from further destabilization of the region at any cost.

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